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Analysis of Democratic Demographics: Clinton and Sanders

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    American politics is a very diversified field - not just between democrats and republicans, but within the parties themselves. This sample essay examines the trends of demographics within the democratic party and is a shining example of the sort of work we produce when you buy an essay

    Demographics of Democrats

    In the March 26th Primaries, which included Alaska, Washington and Hawaii, Democrat Bernie Sanders has won all of the delegates from each state. The win has inspired his supporters and amplifies his proposition that he’s in the game for the long run. So how is Bernie doing compared to Hillary?

    Bernie Sanders appears to be the underdog in the Democratic race for the White House. To date, he has earned 1,004 delegates, compared to Hillary’s 1,712. But on the heels of a big win in Idaho, where he won just over 78% of the caucus vote and 17 new delegates, Sanders seems to be inchworming his way to his intended objective.

    Sanders’ win will certainly serve to inflate his campaign coffers, allowing him to run ads in upcoming, more costly, primary venues like New York and Pennsylvania. In fact, his $1 million ad spend in Washington turned out to be a great investment. While political participation of the little partisan songbird that landed on his podium in a rally in Portland made for great symbolic regalement and an endearing viral vine.

    Certainly Hillary cannot be breathing comfortably, nor can she rest on her laurels. In fact, in response to comments made by her “passionate” opponents and “enthusiastic” Bernie supporters, Clinton said on the 22nd,

    “‘and here’s what I want you to know,’ she continued, ‘I have, as of now, gotten more votes than anybody else, including Donald Trump. I have gotten 2.6 million more votes than Bernie Sanders,’ and ‘have a bigger lead in pledged delegates, the ones you win from people voting, than Barack Obama had at this time in 2008’”.

    Demographic trends have certainly had a positive impact on the Democratic Party overall. Reagan fueled his 1980 landslide with 56 percent of the white vote. Yet in 2012, Mitt Romney lost categorically with 59 percent of the white vote. The discrepancy was due to the fact that non-whites, including African Americans, Hispanics and Asians, increased in percentage of voters from 12 percent to 28 percent. Beyond the key indicators of ethnic background, is the key driver of “educational attainment,” young non-white voters, who have also gained new levels of academic achievement are growing the Democratic Party each year. So how do these Republican-Democratic party factors effect Bernie and Hillary?

    Bernie Sanders attracts white voters, independents and young voters. He tends to win in states where black voter representation is low. This can be seen in stark clarity in his most recent three state sweep, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington. Hillary Clinton attracts white voters, non-white voters, mainline Democrats and older voters. Iowa Caucus results are a reflection of this trend:

    The Iowa Caucus 

    44 delegates to Clinton on February 1st.

    • Clinton won 44% of the male vote, Sanders 50%.
    • Clinton won 53% of the woman vote, Sanders 42%.
    • Clinton won the majority of persons older than 45, while Sanders won the majority of persons younger than 44.
    • Clinton won with those who had an education of high school or less, and those who completed post graduate study, while Sanders won with those who some college or a degree.
    • Clinton won 49% of the white vote and 58% of the non-white vote, while Sanders won 46% of the white vote and 34% of the non-white vote.

    On the Issues

    The March 15th primaries were affected by the minority vote. The critical considerations were financial instability issues, candidate perspectives, views of minority youth and candidate qualities. Free trade was an important factor. The concern centers around the idea that free trade will not increase jobs for U. S. workers and may actually reduce jobs in the long run. As a result, Sanders was able to secure votes from those who were concerned about economic issues. Sanders won on the issue 56% to Clinton’s 41%. Another key consideration is the Obama policies question.

    Do the voters want Obama’s policies to remain as they are, or would they like to proceed in a less conservative direction. Clinton wins on the Barack Obama question 3-1, and Sanders courted the more liberal path by 2-1. The March 15th results show that most want Obama’s policies to remain intact. On the question of who can beat Trump, the majority believe that Hillary is the strongest contender against Donald Trump in the November elections if he was nominated as the Republican candidate. Sander’s supporters are 3 out of 10 for the Vermont junior senator. There is a difference in the numbers from, for example, Florida, Missouri and Ohio, but Clinton still fares better than Sanders. 

    On the issue of candidate satisfaction, most Democrats would support Clinton as the Democratic nominee, as well as Sanders. The gap between the two candidates is very small. In the case of Clinton the results were at three quarters versus Sanders where the stats were seven out of ten. This is in stark contrast to the fragmented Republican party.

    On being too pro-business, there seems to be a balance between the camps, approximately half see Clinton as too pro-business, yet the other half see Sanders as too anti-business. This issue appears to be a wash. On candidate attributes, the attributes depend on the primary or caucus, on the characteristics of experience or electability, Clinton wins out, whereas, on the issues of honesty or empathy, Sanders wins out. Though, electability does not seem to be a major voter consideration, when compared to the other attributes, Clinton shows her vulnerability on the concern of trustworthiness.

    For example, in Michigan, where Sanders pulled a surprise victory, 81% of the voters believed in Sanders’ trustworthiness, with only 56% expressing their opinion felt the same about Clinton. Yet, in Mississippi, the exact opposite was true. On the issue of policy proposal plausibility, Clinton’s policies are at three-quarters with those who believe that her policy proposals are realistic, where Sanders is at just over fifty percent.

    Demographics by State 

    Florida Demographics

    On the race demographic in Florida, non-whites represented a slight preponderance of the Democratic voters, gaining support from eight out of ten blacks, representing more than 25% of all voters, and like the results in the Texas primary, gained 70% of the Hispanic vote. The age demographic showed Clinton gaining 75% of the senior vote, one of her key support groups. Sanders conquered the under 30’s at about the same rate, yet they only represented 10% of the voter population.

    Sixty percent of voters in Florida are women, and they supported her two-to-one. Liberal ideology represented the sentiments of over fifty percent of the electorate, and more than half of those supported Clinton. Seventy five percent of the respondents believed that Clinton had a higher policy realism and electability factor in a competition against Donald Trump than Sanders who scored an even split. On candidate attributes, Clinton won at a rate of 90% on experience and electability, while Sanders won on honesty and empathy by 60%. 

    Illinois Demographics

    On the race demographic in Illinois, white voters, particularly men support Sanders over Clinton. The non-white population, which represents 40% of all voters supported Clinton by 60%. On the age factor, Sanders excelled with the under 45 voters with a 7 in 10 support factor. This is consistent with voter response to Sanders versus Clinton overall. On the issue of healthcare, normally a Clinton stronghold, Clinton and Sanders divide fifty-fifty in Illinois. On the economy, another Clinton bastion, the divide was once again fifty-fifty. Among party Democrats in Illinois, 75% are considered mainliners.

    These mainliners are Clinton supporters, yet she won just over 5 out of 10. Sanders, on the other hand, has strong independent backers. On candidate satisfaction, both Clinton and Sanders both achieved high satisfaction rates if either were to become the Democratic nominee. On Obama policy inroads, 60% of the voters want Obama’s journey to continue. This group threw their support to Clinton, but as compared to other states, Illinois was less obvious in their support. Finally, on the economy and free trade, Sanders narrowly surpassed Clinton among voters concerned about the economy, and overtook Clinton by half on concern over the free trade issue. 

    Missouri Demographics

    On race and age, young Missouri black voters, less than 45 years old, were equally divided between Sanders and Clinton. Clinton’s usually strong support among black voters was less in Missouri than when compared to other states. Twenty percent of the voters were black, and 70% of that twenty threw their support to Clinton. Her difficulty with black voters is related to age, where those 45 and older offer her strong support, where black voters younger than 45 are evenly split between the two candidates. The gender and age issue is also notable. Clinton gained among women, but at a smaller rate than is the norm.

    Consistently, Sanders is doing well with the youth vote, and Clinton is doing well with the senior vote. Clinton rides Missouri with a 57% win on the subject of electability. She is seen as the Democratic nominee most able to win over Donald Trump. The 40% who picked Sanders as most electable, represented the highest belief rate in all the states voting on March 15th. The satisfaction rate flipped for Clinton in Missouri. Sanders received an 80% satisfaction rate with him as the November candidate, where Clinton received a 70% satisfaction rate. 

    Ohio Demographics

    On race in Ohio, Sanders lost to Clinton on the black vote, in a 68 to 30 percent coup. Clinton was able to eek out the white vote 51 to 48 percent, where comparatively, Sanders gained the white vote 56 to 42 percent in Michigan. Consistent with prior results in the age category, Clinton was supported by over sixty six percent of the 45 and older pack, while Sanders’ youth following remained true, though their voting numbers were underrepresented in the Ohio electorate.

    Clinton’s women supporters came out in full force, at 61 to 38 percent representing over fifty percent of the voters. On Obama’s policies, Clinton received support at 3 to 1 over Sanders, for a 73 to 26 percent showing. Those favoring Obama’s policies, compared to other states, was fairly consistent, at 53 percent versus 49 percent in Ohio. On the trade issue, Clinton surpassed Sanders 53 to 46 percent. 

    North Carolina Demographics

    On race in North Carolina, Clinton found support from 8 out of 10 blacks, who made up 3 out of 10 voters. Women represent the majority of the voters in North Carolina and Clinton won them 6 to 10, bolstered by the black female vote at 8 to 10. Support from white women voters was even between Sanders and Clinton. On the experience scale, 80% of the voters preferred a candidate who had experience, versus a political outsider, giving Clinton a 6 in 10 win in the experience category. On Obama policy, North Carolinians are supportive and gave the vote to Clinton with the hope of a consistent policy plan.

    Works Cited

    ABC News Desk. "Mini Super Tuesday Democratic Exit Poll Analysis." ABC News. ABC News Internet Ventures. Yahoo! - ABC News Network. 15 March 2016. Web. 27 March 2016. <http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-mini-super-tuesday-democratic-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37666687>.

    Chozik, Amy. "Bernie Sanders Seizes 3 States, Sweeping Democratic Contests." The New York Times. The New York Times Company. 26 March 2016 Web. 26 March 2016. <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/election-results.html?_r=0>.

    Enten, Harry. "Hillary Clinton’s Got This." FiveThirtyEight.com. 2 March 2016 Web. 26 March 2016 <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clintons-got-this/>.

    Gamio, Lazaro and Clement, Scott. "Iowa Caucus entrance poll results." The Washington Post. Nash Holdings LLC. 1 February 2016. Web. 27 March 2016 <https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/iowa-entrance-poll/>.

    "Iowa Entrance Polls." CNN. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. 1 February 2016. Web. 27 March 2016. <http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/ia/dem>.

    Nicholas, Peter and McCain Nelson, Colleen. "Bernie Sanders Wins Hawaii, Washington, Alaska Democratic Caucuses." The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Co. 27 March 2016. Web. 28 March 2016. <http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-wins-alaska-democratic-caucuses-1459027589>.

    Tau, Byron. "Bernie Sanders Gets Boost From Saturday Sweep but Trails in Delegate Count." The Wall Street Journal. Dow Jones & Co. 27 March 2016. Web. 28 March 2016. <http://www.wsj.com/articles/bernie-sanders-gets-boost-from-saturday-sweep-but-trails-in-delegate-count-1459089508>.

    Wasserman, David. "How Demographics Will Shape The 2016 Election." FiveThirtyEight.com. 3 December 2015 Web. 26 March 2016. <http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/>.

     
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